We all know a good quality classic American muscle car or hot rod is going to cost more than a few bucks. Generally speaking, you get what you pay for with a car, and that’s especially true with classics or rare models that are soon-to-be classics. But if you look at the market for classic cars, generally, it rises and falls with the economy, and with changing tastes and fashions as time goes on.

Right now, the market for traditional hot rods and customs based on cars from the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s is falling off severely. The fact of the matter is, the people who are the most enthusiastic about those models are getting older. They’ve completed their projects and they are not likely to take on any more. So there’s a growing surplus of Bucket-Ts, Deuce Coupes and Fat Fender customs on the market. That holds true right up to the Tri-5 Chevrolets, which are still holding value pretty well.

By contrast, the muscle cars of the 1960s are going strong. Perhaps not as crazy-strong as they were in the bubble years of 2006 and 2007, but they are still rising. The people who remember these cars when they were new are at the peak of their buying power, and they’re willing to spend the money to get the car they always wanted. That’s why the new Pony and Muscle cars being produced today—Challenger, Charger, Mustang, Camaro—all take their styling from the cars of the late-1960s. Cars of the early-to-mid-1970s are now appreciating rapidly as well.

As you look around the market for old cars, the other thing that holds true is that there’s a huge spread between finding a rusty hulk on the local Craigslist and buying an immaculate restoration at a high-dollar auto auction. The prices for top restorations or proven original high-horsepower models are headed into orbit, while lesser models are much more reasonably priced.

Consider this summer’s auctions held in conjunction with the Monterey Reunion vintage car races. At Gooding & Company’s auction at Pebble Beach, a 1969 Chevy Camaro Z/28 sold for $156,750. Other recent auctions saw $110,000 for a 1969 Camaro 396 RS/SS and up to $192,500 for a 1969 Camaro race car with proven Trans-Am and Daytona history. Most top-condition first-generation Camaros at auction have sold for well over $100,000 in the past year.

Then there was the 1973 Pontiac Trans Am Super Duty 455 that sold at Gooding’s last year for $165,000. Bet you didn’t see that one coming 20 years ago.

On the Mopar side, a 1970 Plymouth Hemi Cuda sold for $170,000 in Scottsdale, Arizona, this year, while a 1970 Superbird fetched $154,000 last year. Among Fords, a 1967 Mustang Shelby GT 350 sold for $110,000. All this doesn’t even cover the crazy prices for high-power Corvettes, original Cobras and Ford GT40s.

So what’s the point? Are these cars forever out of reach for anyone who isn’t a bazillionaire? Well, some of them are. Average guys aren’t going to put an L88 Corvette in the garage ever again. But there are still plenty of cars out there that you can buy and that will appreciate over time. Some of them may even take off and give you a big return on your investment—but that’s always a dangerous gamble.

The point is, when you go to buy a car, you should always stick to fundamentals. Is the car what the seller says it is? Learn to decode VIN numbers and how to spot a fake. Is the car in good condition? Always have a mechanic look it over. Is the price in the ballpark, or is someone looking for a greater fool to cover his mistake? Do your homework on comparable prices. Above all, buy a car you’re going to enjoy, because nothing in the automotive world is certain except what you can put your hands on today.

Muscle Marketplace will be a regular part of Maximum Drive, and we’ll look at notable sales, great cars that are still affordable, and how to do the research to make sure you’re getting a great deal, or at least a fair deal, on your classic car purchase.

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Got Cash? Head to Arizona

Scottsdale, Arizona, is the place to be in January. Every major auction house has a huge sale somewhere in the greater Phoenix area in the second half of the month. The big daddy of them all is Barrett-Jackson, and we’ve found a selection of classic muscle cars that will be available at the B-J auction in Scottsdale. Feast your eyes on these, and if you think you’ve got the cash, you might be able to put one in your garage.

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